Australia Energy

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Energy

Macquarie Equity Research

02 July 2026

Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

AustraliaAustralia Energy

SMID-Cap Quarterly Preview

Mark Dylan

Key Points Wiseman, CFA Reid

• We MTM commodity prices, FX and AEMO production ahead of results;

AEL (15-Jul), BPT (22-Jul), KAR (23-Jul), & STX (30-Jul). SMID-cap oil & gas coverage

Summary our preferred SMID-cap exposure, despite weak near-term spot• AEL

Mkt

Company Ticker Rating

(A$m) Cap Price ($A) TargetPrice UpsidePrice prices. We still see minor downside at BPT (Waitsia issues).

• Maintain Neutral on KAR and STX given lack of near-term catalysts to Oil Coverage Curr. %

drive re-rating (both likely a CY27 story). Beach BPT Underperform 1.9 0.84 0.75 -10%

Karoon KAR Neutral 1.0 1.39 1.48 6%

Amplitude AEL Outperform 0.4 1.26 2.55 156%

BPT - Underperform (Implied oil price US$71.90/bbl) Strike STX Neutral 0.4 0.10 0.10 0%

• Waitsia 2Q average was ~15% higher than 1Q, although we remain Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, 2 July 2026

concerned around operational reliability. East Coast gas pricing has been

soft (we recently cut forecasts to A$9/GJ for 4Q-FY26). M&A could

unlock value, although pending East Coast Gas Review likely stalls this

process.

• Earnings & Valuation: Our FY26e EPS are +1% on MTM 2Q production

data (Waitsia & Otway), EPS changes are negligible thereafter. Our 12-

mth TP is unchanged at $0.75/share.

KAR - Neutral (Implied oil price US$67.50/bbl)

• Production from SPS-92 well now restored (currently producing at

8.6kbpd), taking total Bauna production to ~20.5kpbd. Given well

intervention, KAR has increased CY26 guidance range to US$178-202

(we expect US$197m). Third buyback round to commence in July.

• Earnings & Valuation: Our CY26e EPS are +1.3% on increased Bauna