HS briefing: Targets plasma lactobacillus sales of ¥60b and BPM of 20% by 2030

Research evidence excerpt

HS briefing: Targets plasma lactobacillus sales of ¥60b and BPM of 20% by 2030

8 July 2026

Tokyo Intraday Comment

Foods Kirin Holdings (2503)

Rating: Buy

Price Objective: ¥3,250

Company Note Kirin Holdings held an Investor Day for the health science business on 8 July. We see the

Share price: ¥2,905 (8 Jul) key takeaway from the session as management's target to double plasma lactobacillus

Senior Analyst: Hiroshi Saji sales revenue from ¥30b in 2025 to ¥60b by 2030 and achieve a BPM of 20% (BP

of ¥12b), by accelerating overseas market development following June's approval for

use of the ingredient by Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). For the

health science business, the company left its 2030 targets unchanged at sales revenue

of ¥300b and BP of ¥30b–¥33b. We think today's briefing represents a step forward

in reducing uncertainty over the company's ability to achieve its earnings targets. We

forecast a fourth straight year of record BP in 2026 (see our 15 June report). We maintain

our Buy rating on Kirin Holdings, continuing to focus on the company's transition toward

a more resilient business structure, including the health science business (where we

expect a greater contribution alongside improved capital efficiency) as it enters a phase

of stable EPS growth.

Overseas market development for plasma lactobacillus to accelerate with

Australia supplement launch in 2027: During the briefing, Toru Yoshimura (director,

senior executive officer, and president of the health science business division),

described the TGA approval as a major milestone in accelerating the company's

overseas expansion strategy. In 2027, the company plans to launch plasma lactobacillus

supplements in Australia, pursuing further expansion in Southeast Asia by leveraging