Australia Macro+ Week Ahead: The Commodity Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Macro+ Week Ahead: The Commodity Outlook

Idea

July 12, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Macro+ Week Ahead | Asia Pacific Chris Nicol

Equity Strategist

The Commodity Outlook Chris.Nicol@morganstanley.comChris Read +61 3 9256-8909

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

Despite some pull back in the last 6 weeks, Resources carry Antony Conte

significant relative ASX outperformance over the last 12 months. EquityAntony.Conte@morganstanley.comStrategist +61 2 9770-1544

Our global teams updated price deck implies less sector beta Isabel Black

and more nuance in preferred commodity exposures but enough Isabel.Black@morganstanley.com +61 2 9775-2519

in our view to stay OW the sector.

What's Topical? Commodity Prices: Over the last 12 months the ASX Resources

sector is up c.43% and has outperformed Banks by c.39%. Over the last 6 weeks that

has faded with Resources down -10.4%, Banks up +2.1% and ASX 200 up +0.5%. The

late financial year fade linked to a give back in Energy prices, USD strength from rate

re-pricing and some volatility in spot price commodity signals. Our global team in its

latest price deck says Idiosyncratic drivers are likely to dominate through 2H, but

two-way macro event risk remains, especially around the US Fed rate trajectory.

Copper, uranium and gold are preferred. Our Australian sector team takes all this in Exhibit 1 : Macro catalysts for the week

and keeps a constructive sector outlook, and sees recent weakness as little to do ahead

with a cycle inflection and hence creating a pullback opportunity to rotate. We MondayRelease13 July Period MSe Consensus Prev.

recently updated our Model portfolio and retain our OW sector view with exposure Tuesday 14 July