Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jul 08 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jul 08 2026

Macquarie Equity Research – Essentials

08 July 2026

ANZ Essentials

Australian Banks 3

Third time's the charm Carlos Cacho

• For the third year in a row, the key takeaway from our annual NZ financials trips was, 'next year

will be better.'

• While banks were optimistic 2027 would see an improvement, credit growth was expected to

rise only to ~5%.

• NZ is unlikely to be a material driver of group earnings in the near term. Longer term, Kiwibank

remains the key threat to NZ earnings.

Australian General Insurance 4

What to watch for at the FY26 results Andrew Buncombe, CFA

• We expect SUN to announce an additional $200m buyback at its FY26 result. We do not expect

any additional capital returns for IAG.

• Given portfolio exits and market-share losses, we anticipate SUN to guide to FY27 GWP growth

in the "low-single-digits" but close to flat for IAG.

• IAG currently trades at a ~10.3% discount to global peers with similar reinsurance structures;

SUN is trading at a 5.2% premium to local peers.

Critical minerals preview 5

FY27 capex and volume growth a focus Austin Yun, CFA

• We expect a 4QFY26 Li price beat at PLS (+3%), production miss at IGO (-4%) and LTR (-18%);

ELV realised prices impacted by legacy contracts.

• FY27 capex and volume growth a focus; we expect PLS capex miss by 25%, IGO production miss

by 8% and LTR output miss by 6%.

• On implied pricing, LTR, PLS and IGO all screen attractive at ~US$1,300/t spodumene SC6%,

while ELV is at ~US$1,200/t.

Challenger (Outperform to Neutral) 6

Mark-to-market - Jun '26 Andrew Buncombe, CFA

• In 4Q26, credit spreads increased ~1bps vs the prior quarter, after increasing ~3bps in 3Q26.

• CGF’s annuity spreads increased ~4bps vs the prior quarter, in addition to the ~1bps in 3Q26.