Commodities Comment

Research evidence excerpt

Commodities Comment

Estimated change in total stocks – includes estimates for producer, consumer and trader

stocks, as well as estimates for non-registered US stocks

Not enough data to include tin and lead

For nickel and copper, large rises in non-exchange stocks in Stocks verses prices: historically, low stocks for zinc and

2025 aluminium, but copper stocks soar

Copper stocks in weeks use and price Aluminium stocks in weeks use and price

Includes estimates US off-warrant stocks

4,000

Quarterly change in aluminium stocks Quarterly change in copper stocks 6.5 14,000

1500000 800000 11.0

6.0 13,000

3,500

1000000 600000 5.5 12,000

9.0 11,000 400000 5.0

3,000 500000 10,000 $/tonne $/tonne 4.5 200000 consumption copper 9,000 copper consumption 7.0 0 of 4.0 price: of 2,500 price: 0 8,000 tonnes tonnes LME 7,000 -500000 LME weeks -200000 weeks 3.53.0 5.0 2,000 6,000

-1000000 -400000 2.5 5,000

-1500000 -600000 2.0 4,000 3.0 1,500

Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 Q321 Q421 Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423 Q124 Q224 Q324 Q424 Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126 Q226 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 Q321 Q421 Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423 Q124 Q224 Q324 Q424 Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126 Q226 Q114 Q414 Q315 Q216 Q117 Q417 Q318 Q219 Q120 Q420 Q321 Q222 Q123 Q423 Q324 Q225 Q126 Q114 Q414 Q315 Q216 Q117 Q417 Q318 Q219 Q120 Q420 Q321 Q222 Q123 Q423 Q324 Q225 Q126

Total stocks in weeks of use LME price Total stocks in weeks of use LME price

Exchange Non-Exchange Govt sales Total Exchange Non-Exchange Govt sales Total

Quarterly change in nickel stocks Quarterly change in zinc stocks Zinc stocks in weeks use Nickel stocks in weeks use

500,000 4,500 9 35,000 26

150,000

130,000 400,000 24

110,000 300,000 4,000 8 30,000 22 90,000

use 7 use 70,000 200,000