North America Environmental Services: Waste 2Q26 earnings preview

Research evidence excerpt

North America Environmental Services: Waste 2Q26 earnings preview

Equity Research

9 July 2026

North America Environmental Services

Waste 2Q26 earnings preview

Tough prior-year comparisons and fuel recovery lags to weigh

on quarterly results; but resilient pricing, moderating labor

inflation, and strengthening commodity markets keep us North America Environmental Services POSITIVE

Unchangedconstructive on the balance of 2026.

2Q26 expectations William Grippin, CFA +1 617 330 5804

We expect 2Q26 to be characterized by difficult comps from prior-year cleanup volumes and william.grippin@barclays.com

timing-related margin headwinds from fuel cost recovery programs, while underlying solid BCI, US

waste business performance remains resilient. We forecast 2Q26 y/y adj. EBITDA margin

Alec Scheibelhoffer

contraction for our Solid Waste coverage of ~8-10bps on average. In our view, pricing trends +1 212 526 1021

remain favorable, and we expect an improving price outlook due to upward CPI pressures while alec.scheibelhoffer@barclays.com

internal labor cost inflation has likely been more moderate. On volume, we anticipate more BCI, US

tempered forward-looking commentary relative to 1Q26 calls with our conversations suggesting

industrial customers pausing some project activity given macro volatility. Importantly, 2026

guides did not assume a material improvement in the macro economic outlook. A continued

recycled commodity price recovery (OCC +68% YTD), improving RIN pricing (D3 +16% YTD), and

incremental M&A all support upside potential to 2H expectations.

• Names positioned for consensus beats, in our view are: CLH driven

by SKSS outperformance.

• Names where we expect generally in-line prints: WM, RSG, WCN, CWST, with strong base