Waste Services: What to watch for in 2Q results and company updates

Research evidence excerpt

Waste Services: What to watch for in 2Q results and company updates

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Canada 8 July 2026

United States Waste Services

Industry Update

Industrials

Business & Industrial Services

What to watch for in 2Q results and

company updates

Faiza Alwy

Fueling Revenue Growth, Primed for Upside Research Analyst

+1-212-250-7611

Avi Sharma

We expect the three large waste companies to raise FY26 revenue guides driven by Research Associate

higher fuel surcharge, recovery in commodity prices, and favorable pricing/yield +1-212-250-7226

driven by technology initiatives.

Sophie Sheng

Research Associate

Recall that waste-management teams had not updated the guides after 1Q results,

+1-212-250-9954

but it's apparent that higher fuel surcharge will be a benefit to revenues, albeit a

negative for margins. Our models had already reflected some of this but we have

Top Picks

now been more discerning with respect to quarterly cadence of diesel prices,

Waste Connections

acknowledging continued volatility. If fuel costs remain elevated, RSG will see the (WCN.N),USD63.47 Buy

highest EBITDA benefit due to reliance on surcharges; WM's fleet is 70% CNG and

Republic Services (RSG.N),USD9.61 Buy

WCN typically hedges for fuel.

Waste Management

Buy

(WM.N),USD18.89

Beyond fuel prices, commodity prices have finally stabilized and are inflecting Source: Deutsche Bank

upwards e.g., 2H forecast for OCC is +56% on a YoY basis, reflecting upside to our

estimates. We expect companies to continue to focus on efficiencies associated Companies featured

with implementation of new technology tools that should help with pricing/yield Waste Connections (WCN.N),USD63.47 Buy

and margins in the near-term. Any improvement in construction volume will also be 2025A 2026E 2027E