Fresh 7/6: Buys Now vs Start of Year (DCs vs Apts), Jobs, C Square S-1, Bay Area Lab, WPC/O Est

Research evidence excerpt

Fresh 7/6: Buys Now vs Start of Year (DCs vs Apts), Jobs, C Square S-1, Bay Area Lab, WPC/O Est

July 6, 2026

Wolfe's software team highlights diverging outlooks for AI neocloud providers CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group

(NBIS).

While confidence in CoreWeave's capacity ramp and backlog remains strong, potential permitting and deployment

delays at Nebius's Vineland site have prompted a downward revision of its FY26 revenue estimate to the low end of

guidance at $3B.

MSFT - Memory Raises Capex, Lowers FCF and Margins, But Worth It in the End - Alex Zukin, Enterprise Software

Due to rising memory and component costs, the Software team has increased Microsoft’s FY27 CapEx estimate to

$270B, which is projected to drive free cash flow into negative territory and lower near-term margins.

Wolfe Real Estate Takeaways. Supply-demand imbalance for AI capacity persists but realizing planned capacity

remains a major execution risk.

The capital intensity of building out GPU cloud infrastructure continues to rise. Operators are facing upward pressure

on capex budgets to accelerate capacity expansion and absorb potential component price increases.

This supply chain pressure is driving capital expenditure requirements well above previous consensus expectations for

MSFT.

Estimate Changes

WPC: We update our '26 and '27 estimates post debt deal (see here). Our numbers remain largely unchanged for '26

and '27, we are in-line with the street for '26 and '27.

O: We update our '26 and '27 estimates post debt deal (see here). Our estimates are slightly higher using a lower rate

than previously included in our model.

Exhibit 5 - Summary of Estimate Changes

Source: Wolfe Research, FactSet

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