DBDaily: Oil drops after 'deal' comments

Research evidence excerpt

DBDaily: Oil drops after 'deal' comments

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

DBDaily 9 July 2026

Oil drops after 'deal' comments

Phil Odonaghoe

Hawkish ECB minutes, but dovish developments since; DB Economist

verdict on NATO summit; latest macro chartbooks for US, +61-2-8258-1606

Germany & Australia/NZ

***Marion Laboure has produced a global macro events calendar for H2. One

page, printer-friendly: access it here.

US equities were stronger Thursday, S&P up 0.8%, NASDAQ up 1.3%. US10yr

yields down 3bps to 4.55% and oil down 2.4% to USD76.12/bbl (Brent). The

retreat in oil prices followed remarks from Trump indicating that Iran has

indicated it “wanted to make a deal” after US strikes in recent days.

US jobless claims steady: initial at 215k, continuing at 1814k in latest week.

China CPI missed, up 1.0%yoy in June, consensus at 1.1%.

The recent re-escalation of Middle East tensions has pushed oil prices back

towards USD80/bbl, reasserting energy as a driver of rates market volatility.

Markus Heider’s current recommendation for US 2s10s real yield steepeners has

benefited from this move in energy, and Markus maintains his steepener

recommendation, but believes the recent oil-driven steepening creates some

scope for tactical profit taking.

Hawkish ECB minutes. DB’s AI metric scored the June ECB minutes “decidedly

hawkish” (+8 on a: +10 very hawkish to -10 very dovish scale), similar in tone to

the last accounts (+7). The accounts also show skepticism about lower energy

prices, growing concerns about elevated core inflation and the risk of second-

round effects, and a stronger sense of the need to hike. Looking ahead, oil prices

have declined sharply since the meeting on 11 June, and June CPI data was

softer than expected.