Thrills & Chills: Kane You Believe It? A Week of Bets, Pubs and Slot Twists

Research evidence excerpt

Thrills & Chills: Kane You Believe It? A Week of Bets, Pubs and Slot Twists

9 July 2026

Thrills & Chills

We estimate JOA generates between €75 million and €85 million in Adjusted

EBITDA. Applying EBITDA multiples ranging from 8.0x to 9.0x, we project the

acquisition consideration to be between €600 million and €765 million. With a

proposed debt mix ranging from 50% to 60%, we anticipate pro-forma net

leverage will not exceed 4.25x (versus ~4.0x currently).

We view this transaction as a modestly positive development, notwithstanding

the anticipated increase in leverage. However, we do not expect the transaction

to materially influence current bond price levels.

Figure 1: Sensitivity Analysis

Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates

Fitch Affirms Stonegate at 'CCC+'. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Stonegate Pub

Company Limited's Long-Term IDR at 'CCC+' and Stonegate Pub Company

Financing 2019 Plc's senior secured debt rating at 'B' with a Recovery Rating of

'RR2'. The rating reflects high EBITDAR leverage and weak coverage. Fitch

expects some improvement in metrics ahead of the refinancing of its debt that

matures in 2029 from conversions and disposals of loss-making pubs. Fitch

estimates that the company will maintain sufficient but shrinking liquidity as

disposals and a partially undrawn revolving credit facility support capex.

UKGC to introduce financial risk assessments. The UK Gambling Commission

(UKGC) has confirmed its intention to implement Financial Risk Assessments

(FRAs) through a phased rollout across the UK. Under the initial phase, FRAs will

apply to customers aged 25 and over, with assessments triggered only when

deposits exceed £5,000 within a 24-hour period. According to the UKGC, this

threshold is expected to affect fewer than 0.5% of active accounts. Operators will