Rivian Automotive: Successful Equity Sale + Encouraging Preliminary Guidance for Q2'26

Research evidence excerpt

Rivian Automotive: Successful Equity Sale + Encouraging Preliminary Guidance for Q2'26

9 July 2026

Rivian Automotive

EV sector. The HoldCo bonds benefit from 1L on IP and substantially all of the assets

of the co-issuers and guarantors, a 2L on the ABL collateral basket (inventory, A/R,

deposit accounts, et al.) and a shared 1L on New Horizon (Georgia facility) collateral

with the DOE debt. The ABL collateral does not include any pledge to the DOE loan.

Notably, the HoldCo notes rank behind the OpCo in seniority yet are structurally

senior to the TopCo debt (see cap table). Rivian's decision to opportunistically use

equity is the biggest plus for the bonds, which reacted positively to the news.

Rivian's credit story is increasingly shifting from "funding risk" to "execution risk"

with no maturities before 2029. We see current liquidity and strategic support as

providing a significantly larger margin of safety than the market credits. Rivian

achieved positive gross profit, launched R2 production and is now shifting to the

much larger mid-size SUV market where volumes should scale materially beyond

the R1 platform. While we do not expect the company to generate positive EBITDA

until 2028, we do expect the size of the cash burn to progressively abate. We see

Rivian's software, brand, design and user experience as being more important than

drivetrain sophistication for a mass-market EV buyer.

Risks

R2 launch execution, demand, funding milestones, construction budgets,

structural subordination, competition, value migration, strategic partner

validation, policy, technology, default recovery, liquidity, suppliers, margins and

capital markets.

Figure 1: Outstanding Issues

Focus Securities

All-In Next Call Next Call Moody's/