EM Special Publication: EPIC-R: Received bias broadens across EM

Research evidence excerpt

EM Special Publication: EPIC-R: Received bias broadens across EM

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Markets Date

EM Special Publication 9 July 2026

EPIC-R: Received bias broadens across EM

Bryant Xu

FollowingtherecentlaunchofEPIC-R:EmergingMarketsPositioningIndiCator Strategist

forRates—thisbi-weeklyupdatefocusesonthelatestpositioningobservations +65-6423-5558

andchangesacrossEMratesmarkets.Thereportprovidesastandardizedcross-

marketreadofpositioningusingDTCC-implied,IMMroll-impliedandfutures- Christian Wietoska

Strategist impliedindicators.Fordetailsontheframeworkandmethodology,pleasereferto +44-20-754-52424

ourwhitepaper.

Jalaj Singh

With oil flows improving and commodity prices softening, market focus has Research Associate

rotated from the energy-supply shock back to the hawkish Fed narrative.

However, EM rates positioning has become more constructive, with EPIC-R

indicators pointing to a reduction in paid-rates exposure (especially in Asia) and

an extension of received-rates positions. Received positioning is now evident in

10 of the 15 EM rates markets we track, the highest share since Jan-2025.

In Asia, conviction in paid-rates positions appears to be fading, while received-

rates exposure continues to build. The most notable shifts have been in INR and

KRW, where earlier paid positions have been largely unwound, while received

positioning has extended further in SGD and TWD.

▪ China rates positioning remains close to flat, reflecting mixed PBOC

signals and uneven macro data. On the one hand, the PBOC has

continued to withdraw liquidity; on the other hand, it has also delivered a

more accommodative price signal by setting a lower-than-expected

overnight reverse repo rate. Aggregate activity data have softened, while