Capita PLC: Reputational spillover driving insourcing

Research evidence excerpt

Capita PLC: Reputational spillover driving insourcing

Deutsche Bank Group

Deutsche Numis Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Capita PLC 9 July 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

United Kingdom

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 9 Jul 2026 (GBP) 234.00

CPI.L CPI LN LSE CPI

Price Target (GBP) 260.00

Business Services

Outsourcers ADR ISIN 52-week range (GBP) 407.50230.00-

CTAGY US13970R1095

Reputational spillover driving insourcing

Valuation & Risks

David Brockton

Civil Service Pension contract challenge Research Analyst

Capita’s poor delivery for the Civil Service Pension Scheme contract is now +44-20-754-11721

expected to materially impact its FY26 operating profit by £25m to £40m, with

James Beard

additional technology development impacting cash flow by £35m to £50m. Capita Research Analyst

states that it now has the processes, automation and technology in place to work +44-20-754-56765

through contract backlog to improve service. However, after increased remediation

Steve Woolf

cost it will be very hard for Capita to make any profit on this contract over its 10 year

Research Analyst

lifetime without scope expansion. Furthermore, the real-life consequences for Civil

+44-20-754-54604

Service pension customers from these contract issues are bad, and reputational

damage being incurred could still have additional financial consequence for the Bharat Rajesh, CFA

business. Capita inherited a problematic contract, but it has not delivered to what Research Associate

it promised its largest customer – the UK Government.

Key changes

320.00 to

Capita has also indicated that it now expects its Public Service division revenues to TP 260.00 ↓ -18.8%

be broadly flat in FY26, lowered from low- to mid-single digit growth. We think this DB EPS (GBP) 44.43 to 14.65 ↓ -67.0%