China Materials: 3Q26 Outlook: Time To Bottom-fish?

Research evidence excerpt

China Materials: 3Q26 Outlook: Time To Bottom-fish?

Idea

July 9, 2026 08:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Materials | Asia Pacific Rachel L Zhang

Equity Analyst

3Q26 Outlook: Time To Rachel.Zhang@morganstanley.comHannah Yang, CFA +852 2239-1520

Hannah.Yang1@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7079

Bottom-fish? Chris Jiang

Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1593

For 3Q26, our order of preference is Copper > Glass fiber > Cynthia Tang

Uranium > Gold > Lithium > Aluminum. We see compelling entry ResearchCynthia.Tang@morganstanley.comAssociate +852 3963-4360

points in copper and gold equities after the recent correction, Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

and view lithium as having reached a near-term floor supported Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

by strong demand. We turn more cautious on aluminum. CommoditiesAmy.Gower1@morganstanley.comStrategist +44 20 7677-6937

Our preferred stocks remain Zijin Mining (2899.HK / 601899.SS), Zijin Gold

International (2259.HK), China Jushi, and JL Mag. We downgraded select aluminum

names to Equal-weight (see note).

Copper – preferred picks: Copper stocks in China have corrected heavily (down 31-

Greater China Materials

37% from their January peaks vs. 5.6% for INDEX) despite copper prices remaining

Asia Pacific

near historical highs. We see an attractive entry point here, as copper fundamentals Industry View Attractive

remain strong, with a slow resumption of mine production following the supply Related Research

disruptions in 2025, alongside tightness in scrap copper and low inventories outside

the US. The demand side continues to be well supported by global power China Materials: 3Q26 Outlook: Equity

infrastructure and AI buildout. Implications: Building Materials