European Metals & Mining Tracker: Supply Awakening

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: Supply Awakening

Idea

July 9, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Supply Awakening Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Aluminium - from scarcity premium to surplus risk Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: The spread between all-in aluminium prices and raw material costs Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

(ex-electricity) remains vulnerable amid rising supply risks

Research Associate

US$/t Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7677-27023,500

Brian Morgan

3,000 Equity Analyst

Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

2,500 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

2,000 Commodities Strategist

Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

1,500 Ben Kelson

1,000 Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

Mining 101

500 EU all-in aluminium spreads (ex-electricity)

Mining & Steel Equities

0 Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, S&P Platts Commodity Price Signals

Commodity Price Forecast

The supply surge comes early. The aluminium market is moving faster than

expected from a temporary supply shock to a more durable surplus (see: Aluminum:

From Deficit to Oversupply). Middle East capacity restarts appear to be tracking

ahead of initial expectations, with most disrupted smelters likely to be back online

by the end of the first half of 2027. At the same time, Indonesian production is