Exxon Mobil Corp 2Q26 Preview: Timing is Everything; XOM Recalibrates Adjusted Earnings Reporting Methodology

Research evidence excerpt

Exxon Mobil Corp 2Q26 Preview: Timing is Everything; XOM Recalibrates Adjusted Earnings Reporting Methodology

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

09 July 2026

Exxon Mobil Corp Overweight

XOM, XOM US

2Q26 Preview: Timing is Everything; XOM Recalibrates Price (08 Jul 26):$141.13

Adjusted Earnings Reporting Methodology ▼Price Target (Dec-26):$158.00 Prior (Dec-26):$173.00

JPM View: XOM released its 2Q26 earnings bridge, which included the typical

impacts from commodity price changes, planned/seasonal factors, and other Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

adjustments. After taking into account the disclosures in the 8-K supplement, we Arun Jayaram AC

forecast adjusted 2Q26 EPS of $3.68 vs. STe of $3.65 and the mid-point of XOM’s (1-212) 622-8541

earnings bridge at $3.56 (see our thoughts on the earnings bridge here). The arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

company disclosed its 2Q26 earnings considerations on Tuesday, which included Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

a new methodology to calculate adjusted EPS. The company previously reported (1-212) 622-3795

pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

GAAP earnings and adjusted earnings, which stripped out identified items such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

asset impairments, restructuring charges, and legal settlements. Historically, the

company has included the impact of timing effects such as the use of derivatives

on crude and products, which are marked to market immediately, but result in a Key Changes (FYE Dec)

timing mismatch as the physical transaction the company is hedging typically takes Prev Cur Δ

place in a subsequent period. On a go forward basis, XOM will now exclude the Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 11.51 10.07 -12.6%

Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 10.49 9.19 -12.4%

impact of timing effects in its adjusted earnings calculation. To be fair, this was not