Exxon Mobil Holdings Corporation: Neutral 8K; Cleaning Up the Timing Effects

Research evidence excerpt

Exxon Mobil Holdings Corporation: Neutral 8K; Cleaning Up the Timing Effects

Barclays | Exxon Mobil Holdings Corporation

We maintain our 2Q26 production estimate of ~4.2 MMBoed, in line with company guidance

of 4.1-4.3 MMBoed. Guidance embedded ~750 MBoed of Middle East-related impacts, partially

offset by ~150 MBoed of lower downtime elsewhere in the portfolio. Qatar LNG has begun a

partial restart, with Qatar's Prime Minister indicating in late June that production could resume

"within a few weeks" following the Ras Laffan disruption. Bloomberg also reported that

QatarEnergy expects available capacity to recover to roughly 50% within one month of safe

passage and ~80% within two months, effectively restoring most undamaged production. Our

current outlook assumes a more gradual recovery, with undamaged volumes not returning fully

until October, leaving potential upside should the restart progress faster than expected.

Other notable items:

• Disrupted Middle East volumes would have a ~$700MM QoQ impact on 2Q results, which is

the cash flow impact for an incremental 2 months of downtime at 2Q quarter pricing. This

implies ~$15/Boe earning on the impacted volumes.

• Minimal cash impact from other Middle East impact of ~$100-$300MM that's excluded from

adjusted earnings. This is similar to the 1Q impact saw with underwater derivative impacts

related to physical liftings lost due to the Strait closure.

• Impairment and other identified items would be non-cash.

• Corporate and financing expenses were previously guided to $700-$900MM , down $250MM

sequentially. There's also $1.5-2.5bn of working capital outflow expected in 2Q.

FIGURE 1. XOM 2Q26 Earning Considerations vs. Consensus and Our Estimates

Source: Company documents, Bloomberg Consensus, Barclays Research