Commodities Comment

Research evidence excerpt

Commodities Comment

the majority of these newer mines are developed under joint-venture

arrangements, it reduces the price sensitivity that has historically

caused such supply to retreat.

More supply sources, more variables. As the supply base becomes more

diversified, so too does the set of variables that can move the market.

Policy risk is more pronounced across non-traditional suppliers than it is

in Australia or Brazil. Many of the newer producing countries also carry

higher sovereign and operational risk, meaning supply disruptions driven by

policy changes, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical developments are a more

live consideration than they once were. Seasonality patterns have also

become more complex. Historically, the key seasonal watchpoint was the

Q1 wet season affecting Australian and Brazilian shipments. With a broader

supplier base, the calendar of weather-related disruptions has expanded as

each new producing region brings its own seasonal rhythms that now need

to be tracked alongside the traditional ones.

Australian and Brazilian junior miners outpace majors in CAGR growth.

Australian export volumes have expanded at a CAGR of 5% over the past 15

years (2011–2025), with growth led by Fortescue at a 9.9% CAGR, reflecting

its relatively recent expansion from 2008 onwards. Smaller Australian

miners have also contributed to growth as new mines were developed

across the period. Brazil tells a similar story as total Brazilian exports

growing at 1.5% CAGR with junior Brazilian miners leading the way at 8.1%

CAGR.

Back in February, we published a piece on long-term iron ore supply that

included a list of new projects. We've since updated that list below. We think

the trend towards greater supply diversification is likely to continue, though