Building the frontier economy

Research evidence excerpt

Building the frontier economy

Macquarie Equity Research SpaceX

Contents Executive Summary

Valuation Founded in 2002 in Los Angeles by Elon Musk with the singular objective of developing

rockets and spacecraft to enable human settlement beyond Earth, SpaceX has evolvedOverview of operations

into a vertically integrated platform spanning advanced launch systems, satellite networks,

Industry outlook software, and AI infrastructure, enabling the transport of astronauts, satellites, and payloads

Competitive landscape and to support both space exploration and terrestrial applications. Operations span three

positioning interdependent segments - Space (launch), Connectivity (Starlink) and AI (xAI/Grok and X)

- with reusable launch capabilities providing the foundational infrastructure that enables

Financial analysis deployment, scaling and data generation across the connectivity and AI layers.

Key risks These three segments each represent differentiated, rapidly scaling platforms in growth

Management team markets, with Space and Starlink in particular enjoying clear leadership positions. Markets

served by SPCX include (1) a global space economy expected to scale at a 9% CAGR to $1.8T

Glossary

by 2035 (McKinsey); (2) a broadband market generating a ~10% top-line CAGR underpinned

by rising demand for low-latency connectivity, with an emerging high-growth submarket (ie,

Starlink) for always-on, always-available broadband fixed and mobile connectivity; and (3)

AI among the fastest-growing industries globally, with Gartner forecasting total AI spend

globally delivering a 26% CAGR from 2025 to hit $5.6T in 2030 (inclusive of AI Software,

Models and Infrastructure projected to grow annually at 33%, 58.9% and 22.2%, respectively,