Story still in the right orbit

Research evidence excerpt

Story still in the right orbit

, NASA selecting SpaceX for the

delivery of laser communications capabilities for Artemis III in 2027 also reinforces SpaceX's

expanding role in delivering the requisite infrastructure for sustained lunar operations.

We see a disconnect between current levels and the valuation leverage from achieving a

fraction of terminal KPIs. To illustrate the potential scale of the opportunity, even if SpaceX

ultimately deployed only one-quarter of our terminal compute-enabled satellite footprint

(21.7GW) at pricing of $11.40/W, this could support EBITDA of ~$173b (applying a ~70%

margin). On a 13x market multiple, this implies an equity value of ~$2T before discounting

for time but net of deducting a commensurate portion of the cumulative AI capex modeled

through 2031 ($377b out of $1.5T '26e-'31e), which would compare favorably with the

current WholeCo. valuation (~$1.7T EV as of today's close). When incorporated for illustrative

purposes into our SOTP and with discounting to 1-yr. forward, it would imply valuation in

line with today's close price when paired with our published $27.5b EV contribution from

the Space segment, $674b contribution from Connectivity, and a deduction of $123b for

corporate adjustments.

Figure 1 - We illustrate below how a fraction of terminal nameplate compute

at market multiples would equate to more undiscounted value than current

WholeCo. When incorporated into our original SOTP with discounting, the

WholeCo. equity value would be in line with current pricing, and the Space

and Connectivity segments are well-established.

Illustrative compute downside valuation walk ($B)

Illustrative downside GW terminal compute draw 21.7

Blended price per Watt $11.4

Implied terminal revenue on illustrative downside compute draw ($B) 247