2Q26 Preview: Consistency Is the Datapoint

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Consistency Is the Datapoint

$3.50 $5.27 $6.02

FY $15.84 $20.64 $22.60 weakness in other major price points is likely to drive 2Q capture into

negative territory to the tune of a ~$0.20 EPS headwind. That said, EBITDA (M) Q1 $7,360 $6,593A $7,567

Q2 $5,850 $8,538 $7,569 Waha normalization remains a meaningful tailwind for 2027 financials.

Q3 $6,437 $7,931 $7,660 Underappreciated Waha tailwind to 2027. Per our recent Waha note, Q4 $5,199 $7,666 $7,990

FY $24,846 $30,729 $30,785 near-term Permian gas basis stays soft, with 2Q the low point ahead of

new egress, before GCX expansion, ET’s Hugh Brinson, and Total Production

(MBoe/d) Q1 2,389 2,307A 2,442 Blackcomb add roughly 4.5 Bcf/d of takeaway through late 2026 and

Q2 2,391 2,197 2,463 Waha normalizes into 2027. While our sense is no volumes are

Q3 2,400 2,345 2,471 curtailed today, the normalization of Lower 48 gas capture next year

Q4 2,320 2,365 2,543 feels like a still underappreciated $1.1 billion YoY tailwind. And while

FY 2,375 2,303 2,480 too soon for an early look at 2027 on this call, our sense is investors

Oil Production remain focused on the path forward for capex, and whether COP

(MBbl/d) Q1 1,166 1,110A 1,169 decides a better-than-low-single-digit growth program is warranted,

Q2 1,155 1,075 1,180

with the normal planning cycle likely to bring an update around Oct- Q3 1,146 1,125 1,175

Q4 1,115 1,135 1,220 Nov.

FY 1,146 1,111 1,186

Where we see COP today. COP remains the cleanest setup in large-

cap E&P: a long-cycle FCF inflection through 2029 driven by Willow,

Port Arthur LNG, and the Qatar NFE/NFS cycle rolling off, layered onto

1 Year Price History a Lower 48 portfolio that keeps compounding capital-efficiency gains

post-MRO. The 3Q25 framework laid out roughly $1 billion of annual