ConocoPhillips "2Q26 Earnings Preview - Qatar Clouds, Portfolio Silver Linings"

Research evidence excerpt

ConocoPhillips "2Q26 Earnings Preview - Qatar Clouds, Portfolio Silver Linings"

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

ConocoPhillips Equities

United States2Q26 Earnings Preview - Qatar Clouds, Portfolio

Silver Linings Oil Companies, Major

12-month rating Buy *

12m price target US$143.00Strong Ops Offset Middle East Headwinds

Prior : US$155.00

We expect a positive quarterly update from COP, with 2Q production coming in above

the midpt. of the guidance range on strong operational performance across the Price (07 Jul 2026) US$108.44

portfolio. While volume headwinds at N3 persist into 3Q26, we see COP holding FY26 RIC: COP.N BBG: COP US

production and equity affiliate distribution guides for the year. Additionally, we see COP

holding to its 45% of CFO shareholder return target and recent uptick in L48 activity Trading data and key metrics

despite all the commodity volatility. We reiterate our Buy Rating, but our PT decreases to 52-wk range US$133.80-85.66

$143 on the reduction in our commodity deck. Market cap. US$134b

Shares o/s 1,236m (COM)

Key Highlights for COP's 2Q26 Update Free float 100%

2Q26 Estimates. We forecast 2Q26 adj. EPS of $2.89, in line with Street's 2.89. Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,201

We forecast 2Q26 volumes of 2,206mboepd, above the midpt. of the 2,185- Avg. daily value (m) US$255.1

2,215mboepd guide. We forecast 2Q26 capex of $3.2Bn and buybacks of $2.1Bn. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$65.0b

P/BV (12/26E) 2.0x

Middle East. While COP had originally guided to N3 being off-line for the entirety

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.6x

of 2Q26, the asset remains down, driving a headwind to the forward production

and equity affiliates outlook. We estimate the N3 generates ~$800mm/yr at $10/ EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

mmbtu LNG realizations (Note).