UBS: 25 for 2026: 2Q preview: rock solid – Buy the earnings

Research evidence excerpt

UBS: 25 for 2026: 2Q preview: rock solid – Buy the earnings

Catalysts: 2Q results on 29th July

Exhibit 1: UBS capital debate and AT1 court rulings have dominated the agenda in 2025-26

Summary of key events and catalysts for UBS, 2023-2026

Date Event Commentary

Credit Suisse experienced an acute crisis of confidence. The Federal Council, the SNB and FINMA must

UBS announces acquisition of Credit Suisse for CHF step in to protect the Swiss economy. Over the weekend, the Federal Council adopted a package of

March 19th 2023

3bn measures that enabled the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. UBS ultimately acquired Credit Suisse for

CHF3bn in an all-share deal, announced on 19th March.

On the same day as the announced UBS acquisition, FINMA had ordered Credit Suisse to write down the

FINMA orders Credit Suisse to write down

value of its CHF 16.5bn AT1s to zero, citing that a “viability event” had been triggered as a result of Credit

March 19th 2023 outstanding CHF 16.5 Additional tier 1 (AT1)

Suisse requiring government support. A Federal Council Emergency ordinance had also been passed the

instruments to zero

same day to authorise FINMA to order such a write-down.

“The issue of capital backing for foreign subsidiaries of the parent bank UBS will no longer be regulated at

Swiss Federal Council passes decision on foreign the ordinance level, but at the legislative level,” the ministry said in a statement. “In light of its importance

February 26th 2025

subsidiaries to Swiss parliament for financial stability and the economy, (..) it seems appropriate to regulate this issue at the legislative

level and thus present it to parliament.”

Switzerland’s Federal Council presented its capital adequacy ordinance measures which include a stricter