UBS Group AG: Better backdrop, but valuation is full

Research evidence excerpt

UBS Group AG: Better backdrop, but valuation is full

Equity Research

European Banks

22 June 2026

UBS Group AG

Better backdrop, but valuation is

full

Mixed view on UBS (EW) despite supportive markets and UBSG.S/UBSG SW EQUAL WEIGHT

improving regulatory outlook. We raise our EPS by 3% (c.5% Unchanged

above consensus in ‘26e), we're above cons's on buybacks. PT European Banks UnchangedPOSITIVE

raised to CHF 40, but valuation broadly fair, limiting upside Price Target CHF 40.00

potential, while some uncertainty remains. raised 14% from CHF 35.00

Price (16-Jun-26) CHF 40.18

Potential Upside/Downside -0.4%

We continue to have a mixed view on UBS, reflected in our EW rating, with a broadly Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

supportive near-term backdrop but lingering uncertainties. In the short term, higher market

levels should drive positive EPS revisions via stronger AUM and fees, although part of the benefit Market Cap (CHF mn) 131702

may shift into Q3 given fee timing differences across regions. The link between market level and Shares Outstanding (mn) 3277.80

UBS revenues remains strong, with a high correlation to global equity indices, which have been Free Float (%) 85.57

supportive in 2Q26. The regulatory backdrop is also improving, with parliamentary discussions 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 6.0

pointing to a potential softening of capital requirements (towards 70-80% CET1 and possible Dividend Yield (%) 2.10

partial AT1 usage), although visibility on the final outcome remains limited until Q1-27. Capital Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.16

return is another key support, as we expect a buyback top-up at H1 results and total Current BVPS (CHF) 29.72

distributions above consensus. However, we remain cautious on NNM trends, where visibility is Source: Bloomberg