Cost Concerns Easing, But Path to Organic Growth Remains Cloudy

Research evidence excerpt

Cost Concerns Easing, But Path to Organic Growth Remains Cloudy

USA | Food

General Mills EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGECost Concerns Easing, But Path to Organic

RATING HOLDGrowth Remains Cloudy

PRICE $34.80^

GIS delivered a modest Q4 topline beat and larger bottom-line beat on 53rd

week benefits, trade timing, and a lower tax rate. The focus for F'27 is shifting PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $36.00 ($33.00) | +3%

from price to brand investment with the guide outlining upside potential from 52W HIGH-LOW $54.18 - $31.75

stronger savings and favorability from unhedged oil relative to assumptions. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.0% | 364.82

That said, pressured categories, a stressed consumer, and another year of MARKET CAP $18.7B

earnings/margin compression keep us sidelined. TICKER GIS ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Material beat in Q4, but pressures remain. GIS delivered a modest topline beat in Q4, with the

bigger surprise a significant bottom-line beat driven by the 53rd week, favorable trade expense

FY (May) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

timing, and a lower tax rate. Mgmt characterized results as in line with expectations and pointed

2027 2028 2027 2028

to progress strengthening the foundation, including base volume inflecting from -10% in F'25 to

+1% in Q4 (in areas where price investments were made) and household penetration growth in REV NM NM NM NM

both NAR and Pet. NAR org sales were flat, benefiting from trade timing and retailer inventory EPS +5% +5% +1% NM

pull-forward, while Pet org sales were down 3%, lagging retail sales by ~2pts on customer mix as

fast-growing e-com/mass customers carry lower inventory. That said, mgmt flagged consumer 2027 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY