ABGSC Shipping Daily 7 July

Research evidence excerpt

ABGSC Shipping Daily 7 July

Shipping & Transport

Total Strait of Hormuz transits Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of

July?

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons Source: Polymarket

Gulf of Aden arrivals down 49% from pre-closure, Maersk announces return to the Red Sea

In our Red Sea monitor using Clarkson data, total arrivals are now down 49% (GT) vs the 2023 avg, compared to 47% our last

update (26/06/26). Crude tanker transits are up 47% vs the 2023 avg, compared to 66% in our previous update, mainly due to

the re-routing of oil through the East-West pipeline in Saudi.

Car carrier and product tanker transits are down 57% and 37% vs the 2023 average, compared to 26% and 4% in our previous

update, while container transits are down 83% vs the 2023 avg compared to 80% in our previous update. Note that in 2023,

container vessels made up more than 40% of all Red Sea transits, whereas crude and product tankers combined represented

around one quarter of the total.

Yesterday, Maersk announced that they together with Hapag-Lloyd will return to the Red Sea with one of its Gemini Services.

The service in scope is the AE15 service, which employs 14 vessels at ~13-19k TEU per vessel. With Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd

controlling a combined ~7m TEU, this route makes up roughly 3% of total capacity. More importantly than the route itself, this

announcement is "a step in the right direction" in terms of a full Red Sea reopening, which is a clear negative for liner shipping

(containers and car carriers).

In February 2025, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launched the Gemini Cooperation, which at the time was said to comprise either

about 300 vessels with 3.4 million TEU across 57 services via Suez, or about 340 vessels with 3.7 million TEU across 59

services via the Cape of Good Hope.