US capex: Q2 above, but no changes to guidance

Research evidence excerpt

US capex: Q2 above, but no changes to guidance

Equity Research - 25 July 2026 14:17 CEST

Telecom Equipment

• Agg. capex for top-3 US telcos +12% y-o-y in Q2, +4% vs. estimates

• No changes to capex guidance, despite industry talks about price increases

• We prefer exposure to the wireline market (NOKIA, BUY) over RAN (ERIC, HOLD)

More spectrum auctions 2027e, no imminent mobile traffic surge

Summarising the Q2 reports from the top-3 US telcos, we conclude that capex trends took a step up compared with Q1,

chiefly driven by AT&T and T-Mobile. Aggregated capex grew +12% y-o-y in Q2 (+8% y-o-y in Q1), and this was 4% ahead

of consensus (following a 1% beat in Q1 and 6% miss in Q4). Notably, none of the three companies raised concerns about

component costs in the context of network equipment. Instead, the cost pressure discussion was entirely framed around

consumer handsets.

Verizon: Q2 capex +2% y-o-y (vs. +1% y-o-y in Q1). Guides for '26e capex USD 16.0-16.5bn (reiterated), down ~4% y-o-y.

Verizon now explicitly links its capex to AI infrastructure development, stating that it is deploying fibre on a large scale in order

to take advantage of what it describes as one of the largest capital cycles in its history. Verizon did not address component

costs, memory inflation or tariffs in any meaningful way. It sees satellite broadband as non-competitive in urban and suburban

markets due to technical limitations, with terrestrial networks remaining superior. It sizes the US-related satellite TAM at 6-8m

households.

AT&T: Q2 capex +16% y-o-y (vs. +14% y-o-y in Q1). Retierated its capex guidance for 2026. It says that, compared to H2'25

when it was ramping up fibre deployments, it expects capital investments to be more ratable in H2'26. This implies that the peak