NKE: Model update post 4Q26 results

Research evidence excerpt

NKE: Model update post 4Q26 results

RBC Europe Limited

Piral Dadhania (Analyst)

+44 20 7429 8644, piral.dadhania@rbccm.com

Nikolaos Lafioniatis (Analyst)

+44 20 7429 8437, nikolaos.lafioniatis@rbccm.com

Richard Chamberlain (Co-Head of Global Consumer & Retail

Research)

+44 20 7429 8092, richard.chamberlain@rbccm.com

July 1, 2026

NIKE, Inc. Sector PerformRESEARCH Model update post 4Q26 results NYSE: NKE; USD 41.05

Our view: Nike 4Q26 results were mixed, with FX and one-off US tariff Price Target USD 45.00 ↓ 50.00

tailwinds flattering an otherwise broadly in-line print. Forward looking Scenario Analysis*

guidance is tweaked lower on revenues and higher on gross margins,

resulting in small changes to estimates. We are encouraged to hear DownsideScenario CurrentPrice TargetPrice ScenarioUpside

the Sportswear footwear pipeline is building out for Spring/Summer '27

(and which will be showcased at November Investor Day) which is the 20.0048% 41.05 45.0013% 75.0086%

growth unlock at Nike in our view (to compliment building PerformanceEQUITY *Implied Total Returns

momentum). Reducing PT to $45. In sporting, we prefer adidas where Key Statistics

revenue trends are stronger. Shares O/S (MM): 1,481.0 Market Cap (MM): 60,795

Dividend: 1.55 Yield: 3.8%

Key points: Avg. Daily Volume: 23,367,412

Conference call takeaways RBC Estimates (1) Guidance - 1Q27E revenue guide lowered to -LSD to -MSD (from -LSD FY May 2026A 2027E 2028E 2029E

prior) with deceleration in 2Q27E on harder comparatives, gross margin Revenue 46,398.0 45,397.3 46,973.0 48,994.7

recovery pulled forward to 1Q27E (from 2Q27E) and flattish y/y earnings Prev. 46,185.9 46,237.0 47,876.7 49,946.8

guide reiterated to 2Q27E. (2) 4Q26 tale of two halves - started strong Gross Margin 42.9% 41.6% 42.3% 43.1%