Nike, Inc.: Headed Into Overtime? 4Q26 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Nike, Inc.: Headed Into Overtime? 4Q26 Preview

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Nike, Inc. 26 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States NKE.N NKE US Price target (USD) 43.00 Price at 25 Jun 26 40.90

52-week range 79.24 – 40.90

Consumer

Apparel, Footwear & Textiles Valuation & Risks

Headed Into Overtime? 4Q26 Preview

Krisztina Katai

Ahead of NKE’s 4Q26 print, investor sentiment remains firmly negative (NTM P/E Research Analyst

+1-212-250-0590 has compressed back to pre-1Q26 levels), with focus squarely on NA wholesale

sell-through, China trends, and the likelihood of FY27 guidance. On the latter, we Nick Breckenridge

do not expect a formal FY27 outlook until the company’s Fall investor day, Research Associate

particularly in light of the unexpected CFO transition announced earlier this week +1-212-250-9179

(which could further delay timing).

Jessica Taylor

We approach 4Q with a cautious stance. Our channel checks suggest elevated Research Associate

+1-212-250-3165 inventory levels in EMEA and muted demand outside of key running franchises,

limiting broader category momentum. We are also cautious on Greater China,

where risk skews to additional negative top-line revisions amid a potential sharper

-than-expected pullback from wholesale partners. Similarly, investors are Key changes

increasingly questioning whether NKE may need to reset its CY26 top-line Price target (USD) 51 43 -16%

outlook provided three months ago (currently down LSD%), reflecting what

Source: Deutsche Bank

appears to be a more protracted recovery trajectory than initially contemplated

last quarter.

In our view, the key debate for the print will center on the durability of North

America growth, particularly as NKE laps prior distribution gains and value