US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun 2026): drops to 53.3

Research evidence excerpt

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun 2026): drops to 53.3

2 July 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Comment

PMI turns down but still high: Prices index tumbles on drop in resource prices

The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.0 in May to 53.3 in June, belowChief Economist:

the market estimate of 53.9 (see Figure 1). The report states that the PMIShunsuke Kobayashi

corresponds to a 2% annualized increase in real GDP.+81 3 6202 8222

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com There is little doubt that business sentiment is slowing since the Production

Economist: and New Orders indices fell, the Inventories index rose, and the Backlog of

Soichiro Hirose Orders index fell. That said, the Production and New Orders indices are still

+81 3 6202 8293 high, and customers’ inventories have fallen even further, so the results will

soichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com likely fuel expectations for business expansion for now. For the non-composite

indices, the Prices index fell sharply due to a decline in resource prices.

The following are more details. For the PMI’s composite indices, there were

increases for Employment (from 48.6 to 49.7) and Inventories (49.9 to 51.4)

and decreases for Production (54.3 to 52.2), New Orders (56.8 to 56.0), and

Supplier Deliveries (60.6 to 57.4; see Figure 3).

The New Orders index fell for the first time in three months but was still

above 50. The 11 sectors that reported growth in new orders, in order,

are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related

Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer

& Electronic Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated

Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and

Chemical Products.