US new car sales: June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

US new car sales: June 2026

2 July 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Autos and Auto Parts

Industry Overview

June SAAR (Autodata) at 16.67m vehicles; solid trends continue

Senior Analyst: Summary

Yoshitaka Ishiyama According to Autodata, new vehicle sales volume in the US rose 8% YoY to

+81 3 6202 8415 1.379m vehicles in June 2026, with sales on a seasonally adjusted annual rate

yoshitaka.ishiyama@mizuho-sc.com (SAAR) basis up 5% to 16.67m vehicles. Sales remained at a SAAR above

16m vehicles and incentives (discussed below) were largely flat. Our view is

that sales have remained solid, in line with the trend thus far, and we will be

watching whether this continues ahead.

Sales volume

In June, sales rose for all major Japanese automakers, including Mitsubishi

Motors, Subaru, Honda Motor, Mazda Motor, Toyota Motor, and Nissan Motor.

Mitsubishi Motors’ sales volume significantly exceeded our forecast; Mazda,

Honda, and Subaru were slightly above; and Toyota and Nissan were largely

in line. Mitsubishi Motors saw sales volume rise substantially, which may

have been due to the timing of fleet sales. Mazda’s overall sales were good,

and while sales of the CX-5 turned up MoM, trends still look somewhat

underwhelming. We will be watching to see if sales improve further. Toyota’s

RAV4 sales continued to decline in June (down 12% YoY), and while we

believe supply-side factors remain at play, overall sales were solid. Nissan

announced that retail sales rose YoY for the 16th straight month.

Sales incentives

For the industry at large, sales incentives per vehicle were $3,464 (up $55 YoY

and down $41 MoM). Incentives turned down MoM. Over the past few months,

incentives have been largely flat with some month-to-month fluctuations,