BoJ Tankan (Jun 2026): conditions DI well above consensus

Research evidence excerpt

BoJ Tankan (Jun 2026): conditions DI well above consensus

1 July 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Analysis

Future business conditions DI points to decline, but credibility in question

Chief Economist: Summary

Shunsuke Kobayashi In the June 2026 BoJ Tankan survey, the current business conditions DI for

+81 3 6202 8222 large manufacturers improved to +22 (up 5ppt versus the March survey). The

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com current business conditions DI for large non-manufacturers was +37, up 1ppt

from the previous survey (survey period from 28 May to 30 June, with 11Economist:

June as the base date for response). The DIs for large manufacturers andSoichiro Hirose

non-manufacturers both topped the Bloomberg consensus estimate of +16+81 3 6202 8293

soichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com and +36, respectively. The latest Tankan survey indicates aggregate forex

assumptions of ¥152.57/$ and ¥175.62/€. Based on this, manufacturers will

probably make upward revisions to their earnings forecasts if exchange rates

remain at current levels.

A closer look at trends by industry shows that among large manufacturers,

the business conditions DI rose for some basic materials industries thanks to

progress with cost pass-through in response to an earlier surge in resource

prices, as well as the recent easing off in resource prices. The business

conditions DI rose for the processing sector thanks to an increase in AI-related

demand, a global rise in capacity utilization, and the partial removal of tariffs

imposed by the Trump administration. The business conditions DI for large

non-manufacturers remained high overall.

Meanwhile, the future business conditions DI for large manufacturers stood