China’s manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs both up

Research evidence excerpt

China’s manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs both up

1 July 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Strategy / Equity

Asia Equity Strategy

Domestic demand still weak; government calls for faster financing

Senior China Equity Strategist: Manufacturing PMI up first time in three months as overseas

Shenshen Wang orders rise

+81 3 6202 8480 The increase in China’s manufacturing PMI, which ran contrary to the seasonal

shenshen.wang@mizuho-sc.com pattern, has provided a boost to market sentiment. The June reading of

50.3 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on 30 June marked

an improvement versus May (50.0) and reassured equity-market buyers.

On the same day, mainland markets saw buying of high-tech stocks gather

pace, with the Shanghai Composite Index reversing an earlier decline to

make modest gains. China’s manufacturing PMI has often been sluggish

mid-year in recent years, but it rose MoM in June for the first time in three

months, indicating firmness in manufacturing. The main contributor to the

manufacturing PMI was an increase in the new orders index. The new export

orders index rose 1.5ppt MoM, while the new orders index reached 51.2, its

highest level in three months. Overall demand appears firm thanks to growing

overseas demand, though domestic demand shows no clear signs of recovery

at present. In our report of 1 June, we noted that the finished goods inventory

index within the May manufacturing PMI was high, indicating a short-term

need for production adjustments. Despite the recent expansion in orders,

the production index rose only 0.2ppt from the previous month, suggesting

a cautious stance toward ramping up output. However, as the orders index

increased, the finished goods inventory index fell by a sharp 1.6ppt MoM.