US stock market review (June 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

US stock market review (June 2026)

1 July 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Strategy / Equity

US Equity Strategy

Slight headwinds as FOMC enters new phase, but stocks steady

Global Senior Strategist: Some concerns emerging, but upward revisions for tech continue

Takaaki Hironaka In June 2026, the Dow Jones was up 2.5% MoM and the Nasdaq was down

+81 3 6202 8554 2.8%. The Dow posted its third consecutive monthly gain, while the Nasdaq

takaaki.hironaka@mizuho-sc.com declined for the first time in three months.

After two months of strong gains, the equity market saw more back-and-forth

trends in June. While AI remains the market's core theme, investors seem

to have turned their focus to hyperscalers’ free cash flow, the pace of data

center construction, price competition among AI models, and consumer cost-

benefit analysis. Nevertheless, tech-related stocks in particular continue to

drive upward revisions to earnings forecasts, so considering this alongside the

back-and-forth share price action, we think valuations are in fact becoming

relatively more attractive. Expectations for earnings remain high heading into

the Apr–Jun results season, which fully kicks off in July, and the market is in

a healthy, earnings-driven state. There is a risk, however, that expectations

are too high, and a lack of positive surprises could be seen as disappointing.

In such a scenario, a broader slice of the market may begin to treat the

aforementioned AI-related risks (i.e., hyperscaler free cash flow, the pace of

data center construction, price competition among AI models, and consumer

cost-benefit analysis) as matters of concern.

Meanwhile, new Chair Kevin Warsh assumed his new position leading US

monetary policy from the June FOMC meeting. He introduced significant