CIO Brief

Research evidence excerpt

CIO Brief

CIO Brief July 5, 2026

KEY THEMATIC RESEARCH

Global Exposure Guide 2026 – Mapping Revenue Sources in a Multipolar World

Our annual analysis quantifies companies’ geographic revenue exposure, based on Morgan Stanley analysts’ estimates, to

provide a consistent global framework where company disclosure is often limited. Europe screens as most geographically

diverse among the major regions, with over half of revenues generated in markets outside Developed Europe. Our database

also includes revenue exposure to different end-markets – we find that US companies are the most exposed to Consumers

(comprising almost half of revenue), while European companies are least exposed to Consumers. read more

A $6 Trillion Question: Are US Health Costs Under Control?

US healthcare spending growth is currently up 6% Y/Y, down from 9% growth two years ago. If sustained, this would be

notable: Healthcare's contribution to inflation has been twice what it was pre-COVID. However, we think the slowdown in

reported healthcare inflation is too good to be true. We think 4 drivers create a wedge between total US healthcare costs

and inflation gauges: (1) The government (50% of US Healthcare spending) pays less than commercial payors; (2) More care

is occurring in cheaper settings; (3) People are consuming more care; and (4) Patient needs are more complex. read more

KEY MACRO RESEARCH

Global Economics: The Capex Cycle in an Asian Context

We believe the fading oil shock strengthens Asia’s macro backdrop as its AI-led export upcycle broadens into a durable

industrial capex cycle. We see four intertwined forces driving the cycle: AI and related infrastructure demand, Energy-

Transition investment, defense spending, and broader industrial capex spillovers.