LatAm Oil & Gas: Stock Picking Post Oil Correction

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas: Stock Picking Post Oil Correction

Idea

July 5, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MLatAm Oil & Gas | Latin America Bruno Montanari

Equity Analyst

Stock Picking Post Oil Bruno.Montanari@morganstanley.comThiago S Casqueiro +55 11 3048-6225

Research Associate

Thiago.Casqueiro@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9507

Correction Luiza B Belem

Luiza.Belem@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-4276

Brent is ~40% off its peak, driving a ~20% correction in LatAm

LatAm Integrated Oil & Gas

oil equities. We see an attractive entry point for fundamentally Latin America

strong stories, which had not priced the full oil upside. PBR and Industry View No Rating

LatAm E&P

VIST are our top ideas, with resilient break-evens and attractive Latin America

valuation. Upgrade PRIO to Overweight. Industry View Attractive

Key Takeaways

We update our price deck to our commodity strategists' near-term forecast of

$75/bbl and keep our long-term estimate at $70/bbl

Our 2026 EBITDA estimates decline 8% on average, and 2027 decline 10%

LatAm oil stocks are pricing in $58–65/bbl long-term Brent vs. our $70/bbl

estimate, which we find overly pessimistic

Valuation, growth, & execution drive our OW preference for PBR & VIST. EC

discounts Brent above spot and prices macro events for perfection, supporting

our UW

We upgrade PRIO to OW after the recent pullback, which improves risk-reward

(5:1 bull:bear skew), and ahead of the expected dividend policy announcement in

2H26

Crude oil market: faster than expected move to surplus. Our oil strategist argues

that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening faster than expected, yet the "twin solvers" of

high US exports and low Chinese imports remain in place. The result is a physical

glut.