Chemicals: Brazil Potash Falls, US Urea Rebounds, Phosphate Stable; Oilseed Crush Lower

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals: Brazil Potash Falls, US Urea Rebounds, Phosphate Stable; Oilseed Crush Lower

Idea

July 5, 2026 11:08 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMChemicals | North America Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

Brazil Potash Falls, US Urea Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +1 212 761-3293

Lisa H De Neve

Equity AnalystRebounds, Phosphate Stable; Lisa.De.Neve@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0250

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCOilseed Crush Lower Steven K Haynes, CFA

Steven.Haynes@morganstanley.com

Turner W Hinrichs

Urea reverts and posts small gains in selective regions. A week of better activity Research Associate

Turner.Hinrichs@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1269

with Iran selling 300kT, late-season demand from Australia, and a new Indian RCF

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tender on the horizon each mitigating further urea price corrections across various Ricardo Rezende, CFA

key regions, with some regions actually reversing course. US NoLa urea prices were Equity Analyst

Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-9886

+$12/st to $355-373/st fob WoW with a couple of new sales concluded, although

momentum softened by week-end. Iran prices fell down to $340/t cfr but this Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Julia Rizzoresulted in large sales totalling over 300kT with 60kT destined to Brazil. In the

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

broader Middle East, a total of 1.1mT in urea has left via the SoH since the US-Iran Julia.Rizzo@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6114

peace agreement on June 17th; the watch-out is now whether vessels will be willing

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to re-enter the SoH. Brazil urea was +$3/t to $400-410/t cfr WoW noting a pick-up Justin T Pellegrino

in demand.