Airlines Better Positioned for Revenue Retention Than Prior Cycles

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines Better Positioned for Revenue Retention Than Prior Cycles

July 1, 2026 | 20:00 ET~

US Airlines

Airlines Better Positioned for Revenue Retention US Airlines

Than Prior Cycles Michael Goldie Analyst

Michael.Goldie@bmo.com (416) 300-0689

Darcy McKinnon Associate

Bottom Line: darcy.mckinnon@bmo.com (416) 722-5413

While the pace of fare increases has slowed, airline demand strength persists. Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

Concurrently, jet fuel prices have normalized, and with crack spreads still elevated, we

see a path for further price declines. While airline unit revenues have historically fallen

with fuel, we see the industry as better equipped today for revenue retention given the

diminished role of discount carriers, cabin segmentation/premiumization, and revenue

diversification beyond the aircraft. Our U.S. airline estimates are revised higher for 2026

as we lower our fuel cost assumptions, while 2027 adjustments are more varied as we

fine-tune our non-fuel assumptions, albeit we remain constructive on the group. Within

aerospace, we make more modest estimate revisions.

Key Points

Airline demand momentum persists across carriers, regions, and segments. While

the pace of further price increases has slowed, booked yields continue to trend in the

mid-teens-plus range. Further underscoring the positive backdrop are September yields

which we believe, in some instances, have matched July and August versus a more

normalized environment where discounting would typically be required this far out.

Energy prices have rapidly declined with normalizing cracks offering further

potential. While the geopolitical backdrop remains unpredictable, the conflict between

the U.S./Israel and Iran has been on a general path of de-escalation with the Strait of