Ahold Delhaize "Resilient in a tough environment" (Neutral) Mahamkali

Research evidence excerpt

Ahold Delhaize "Resilient in a tough environment" (Neutral) Mahamkali

Cons.

US: We model a sequential decline in US comp sales at 0.8% (Q1: 1.5%) reflecting a 12/26E 2.79 2.71 -3 2.79

softer volume trend in tough market. On the margin front, however, our US margin 12/27E 2.99 2.83 -5 3.00

remains unchanged at 4.2% (-15bps) as we already reflected some caution based on 12/28E 3.31 3.11 -6 3.23

AD's comments at the time of Q1 (here) with EBIT at €542m. We would closely look for

details around build of volume/market share recovery that AD has mentioned previously Sreedhar Mahamkali

and the impact of price investments/margin phasing. Europe: We expect Comp sales of Analyst

sreedhar.mahamkali@ubs.com

+1.2% (Q1:+2.6%) with clear disinflationary trends in the key markets of Europe over

+44-20-7568 8040

Q2 with Serbia still impacted by the after effects of the price controls. We expect some

pressure on margins reflecting tough environment in Serbia/Romania the latter requiring Angelo Mangieri

some reinvestment of the Profi synergies that are coming through. We now model a Associate Analyst

angelo.mangieri@ubs.com

slightly lower EBIT margin in EU for Q2 of 3.6% margin (was 3.7%) that leads to EBIT of

+44-20-7567 7974

€365m. Group: We see GSO costs at (€30m) taking our Group EBIT to €878m, c3.5%

below VA Cons(€909m).

Valuation: DCF driven PT to €38 (from €42), Reiterate Neutral

Our FY26/FY27E Group Revenue is up +0%/1% reflecting some benefit from marking

USD to market. We cut Group EBIT -2%/-4%, primarily driven by cuts to EU (7%/12%

lower) as our US EBIT is slightly higher (1%/2% higher) with USD partly helping. Our EPS

estimates are down -3%/-5%. We look for Group EBIT margin of 4.0% in FY26e/FY27e

with our Group EBIT now -1%/-2% below VA Cons. These flow in to our terminal