SNAP, Crackle, Pop

Research evidence excerpt

SNAP, Crackle, Pop

Netherlands | Food Retailers

Ahold Delhaize EquityJuneResearch17, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGESNAP, Crackle, Pop

AD's 10% de-rating since its 6 May results (vs US/Eur grocers -5%/-1%) RATING BUY

has been driven by a combination of fears both old and new: a mixed PRICE €36.01^

US consumer outlook, competitive intensity, and management change. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €43.00 (€47.00) | +19%

We still believe delivery will continue to prove AD's elevated market share 52W HIGH-LOW €42.54 - €32.13

momentum and margin resilience. Mgmt change is clearly the most FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 97.8% | 101.62

pernicious issue, but our work shows AD has a deep bench of experience MARKET CAP €32.4B | $37.6B

and a clear strategy to execute. Maintain Buy. TICKER AD NA

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Debate #1: US consumer outlook. It is notable that investor concern is visibly more elevated

for US consumers than for European. Fading inflationary pressures will now be widespread

across Europe and the US, but SNAP eligibility reductions present a significant additional US FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

headwind. 2026 2027 2026 2027

REV -1% -1% -1% +1%

Our work shows that AD benefits from lower than average SNAP penetration, improving price EPS -1% -3% +1% +3%

perception lifting volume market share, and a strong skew to private label. All of which should Cons source: visible alpha

provide a strong advantage.

Debate #2: Competitive intensity and inflation path. We continue to see most industry price

Chart 1 - Our Work Shows A Much Lower SNAP

investment coming from CPG margins, despite KR's announced price investment strategy, Impact At AD Than Nationally

which are potentially largely funded by the OCDO deal unwind. Those $400m of savings 0.0%