Telecom 2Q'26 Preview: In the Starlink Ice Age, Waiting for a Thawing Cycle

Research evidence excerpt

Telecom 2Q'26 Preview: In the Starlink Ice Age, Waiting for a Thawing Cycle

Media, Entertainment & Telecom

Telecom - Market Weight

Telecom 2Q'26 Preview: In the Starlink Ice Age, Waiting July 1, 2026

for a Thawing Cycle

The Wolfe Byte

Our 2Q preview favors mobile over cable on stable-ish fundamentals. Broadband trends are concerning, while

mobile operators seek to ease pressure on churn & SAC. SpaceX poses risk to cable forecasts in 2H'26, while

SpaceX's rhetoric alone compressed mobile multiples.

Sector view: Valuations at or within 1/2 turn of all-time lows are tempting, but we see material broadband forecast risk

and minor telecom forecast risk with scarier headline risks around Starlink. While the US telecom growth algorithm is

in question for telcos and a memory for cablers, 2Q financial results should meet expectations. Pockets of improvement

remain, e.g. rising productivity, yet the model depends on sustained, rational competition. That backdrop is weakening

as increased convergence constrains ARPU growth, while emerging LEO appetite to compete in mobility raises

questions about long-term industry profit pools. As risks rise relative to fundamentals, sector investibility dampens vs.

a year ago, absent structural change (Comcast's split). On relative basis, we continue to favor TMUS given its superior

service revenue growth, pricing structure, and financial trajectory.

Lasting SpaceX impacts: Over the past 3 months, US connectivity stocks are down -21.2%. SpaceX's June IPO

(initiation HERE) has reinforced management's intent to expand into broadband & mobility. Starlink's broadband

opportunity is already credible and represents a clear substitute for cable and fixed wireless access. In contrast,