Charter Communications: Broadband pressure continues, strategic optionality builds

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Charter Communications: Broadband pressure continues, strategic optionality builds

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Charter Communications

Broadband pressure continues, strategic

optionality builds

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 200.00 USD | Price: 142.21 USD

Broadband backdrop remains challenged, ARPU pressured 01 July 2026

Charter’s 2Q setup remains challenged as broadband losses stay elevated, ARPU Equity

pressure persists, and competitive intensity from fiber and FWA remains steady. We

forecast residential broadband net losses of 155k, with video trends comparatively

Key Changesbetter as Charter’s seamless entertainment offering continues to support retention. We

are modestly improving our residential video net losses to 65k (vs. -70k prior estimate), (US$) Previous Current

while leaving residential mobile net adds at 395k. Price Obj. 250.00 200.00

Looking skyward for mobile optionality 2026E2027E EPSEPS 38.7042.04 37.9541.42

We view the reported SpaceX/Charter discussions as an example of Charter looking for 2028E EPS 59.13 58.31

ways to make mobile/their owned spectrum into a more meaningful strategic asset within 2026E EBITDA (m) 22,554.3 22,424.2

the broader connectivity bundle. The structure of any potential arrangement is unclear, 2027E EBITDA (m) 22,284.3 22,193.0

and likely more complex than simply extending Charter’s existing MVNO relationship 2028E EBITDA (m) 22,880.9 22,787.0

(we’re skeptical that CHTR can essentially re-sell its MVNO). In our view, the talks suggest

Charter is continuing to explore ways to enhance its mobile value proposition through a Jessica Reif Ehrlich

broader connectivity ecosystem, potentially including network interconnection, back- Research Analyst

office support, direct-to-direct satellite coverage or other partnership structures.