Rapid Fire Friday: Happy Birthday America

Research evidence excerpt

Rapid Fire Friday: Happy Birthday America

TD Securities (USA) LLC POLICY NOTE

July 2, 2026

■WRG Aerospace & Defense Rapid Fire Friday: Happy Birthday America

Roman Schweizer THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

202 868 5305 ■USA-IRI: Talks progress - tensions persist

roman.schweizer@tdsecurities.com

■NATO: Trump to attend NATO summit next week

Liz Huseynov

646 562 1421 ■FY27 Budget: Funding uncertainty grows

liz.huseynov@tdsecurities.com

■B-21 Bed Down: Raider deployment accelerated

■B-2 SINKEX: B-2 employed LRASM in exercise

■NASA Lander: Awards for Astrobotic, Firefly Aerospace, & Intuitive Machines

■Unmanned: New unmanned Czar; awards for AV, AEVEX, & Overland AI

■COTW: Fed workforce down 11%

Watch List

■USA-IRI: Indirect USA-IRI talks in QAT are reportedly making progress, w/ Qatari mediators

saying discussions on key elements of negotiating framework will continue & Vice President

JD Vance describing talks as going well. Diplomatic thaw comes as Tehran simultaneously

warns of an “immediate powerful response” to any ISR strike.

■NATO: NATO leaders gather in Ankara next week w/ defense spending, industrial capacity,

and support for UKR at top of agenda. President Trump has confirmed he will attend,

putting added focus on burden-sharing and implementation of NATO's 5% defense

spending commitment. Alliance officials have also signaled new defense investment

announcements and contract activity tied to the summit.

■FY27 Budget: Rather than entering Jul w/ momentum, defense funding is becoming

increasingly bottlenecked as FY27 appropriations, a potential $350B Reco 3.0 package,

& Admin’s ~$67B DoW supplemental compete for limited floor time. Senate disputes over

spending top-lines are slowing appropriations, Reco 3.0 appears to be slipping toward lame