Akzo 2Q26 Preview - All Eyes on August 5th

Research evidence excerpt

Akzo 2Q26 Preview - All Eyes on August 5th

EUROPE | Chemicals

AkzoNobel EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEAkzo 2Q26 Preview - All Eyes on August 5th

We reduce our EBITDA estimates by 2% on average, but increase our RATING HOLD

PT to €55 (MTM peer multiples in SOTP), maintaining our HOLD rating. PRICE €60.34^

Weak construction and renovation demand continues to pressure volumes, PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €55.00 (€50.00) | -9%

limiting operating leverage, while higher oil prices add margin risk despite 52W HIGH-LOW €67.64 - €46.18

some scope for pricing pass-through. Investor views on the proposed FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 100.0% | 66.82

Axalta merger remain mixed, with execution risk centred on synergy MARKET CAP €10.3B | $11.8B

retention. Shareholder vote on August 5th. TICKER AKZA NA

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Operationally, our challenge continues to surround Akzo's ability to sustainably grow

volumes. With incremental volumes carrying meaningful operating leverage, even modest

demand weakness continues to weigh disproportionately on earnings. European construction FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

recovery expectations continue to be pushed out further, demonstrated by continued 2026 2027 2026 2027

weakness in May PMIs, while renovation activity remains weak, suggesting continued near- REV NM <-1% +1% +1%

term pressure on Paints volumes. In Coatings, demand remains subdued across several end- EPS <-1% -4% +3% +1%

markets, limiting any meaningful offset.

2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

On margins, higher oil price adds risk, with management now expecting the raw material basket EPS -- -- -- -- 3.95

to rise by mid-teens percentages. We estimate weighted average raw material basket of acrylic PREV 3.98