First Read: Akzo Nobel "Assessing the rationale for Nippon’s acquisition..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Akzo Nobel "Assessing the rationale for Nippon’s acquisition..."

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesAkzo Nobel

Assessing the rationale for Nippon’s acquisition Netherlands

proposal for Deco Chemicals, Specialty

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target €65.00

What's happened?

Akzo disclosed this morning (here) that it had received multiple conditional, non-binding

approaches from Nippon Paint for its Deco business at an indicative €7.5bn EV, although Price (10 Jul 2026) €57.40

management rejected the proposal on valuation grounds and reiterated its support for RIC: AKZO.AS BBG: AKZA NA

the Axalta merger. In terms of valuation, our SOTP values Decorative Paints at ~10x EV/

Trading data and key metrics

EBITDA (EV ~€6.6bn), based on peers Nippon Paint (~9x) and PPG (~11x). The implied

valuation from Nippon's proposal is ~11x Visible Alpha consensus 2026 EBITDA, 52-wk range €66.44-47.30

suggesting a modest premium to our current valuation. This may not be enough to look Market cap. €9.83b/US$11.2b

compelling at first glance, but is potentially an interesting starting point for a business Shares o/s 171m (ORD)

that increasingly appears outside Akzo's long-term strategic direction. That said, the Free float 100%

timing looks complicated given the ongoing Axalta merger. Avg. daily volume ('000) 746

Avg. daily value (m) €42.4

Are there meaningful synergies between Coatings and Deco? Common s/h equity (12/26E) €4.48b

Historically, management has indicated limited overlap between the two businesses. P/BV (12/26E) 2.2x

Deco serves DIY and professional painter markets, while Coatings is focused on more Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.2x

technical industrial end-markets. The businesses have different customers, routes to

EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)