BOE: Lifting our long-term uranium price forecast - Upgrade to Sector Perform

Research evidence excerpt

BOE: Lifting our long-term uranium price forecast - Upgrade to Sector Perform

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new wide-spaced wellfield design in July 2026 across HMT1, HMT2, HME1, P/ACFPS 25.4x 6.0x 3.6x 3.5x

and EKT1. HME1 and HMT2 may be brought online more quickly given

relatively fast pre-conditioning expectations. HMT2 in particular benefits AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorAUD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

from its proximity to existing wellfields. However, learnings from these tests

will be incremental rather than transformational, given the spacing is only

modestly wider and does not yet employ the super-wide configuration

planned for HMT1 and EKT1. We anticipate pre-conditioning timelines of

6–9 months+ for HMT1 and EKT1, placing significant demand on the water

treatment plant (WTP) and potentially interrupting production without

capacity expansion.

Outlook. We forecast FY27 Honeymoon production broadly flat year-on-

year, with modest upside only attributable to the weather-related 3Q FY26

disruption rolling off. Wellfield B6 in East Kalkaroo represents the final

wellfield to come online ahead of the revised feasibility study, offering a

marginal production boost before we expect output to decline pending

assessment and pre-conditioning of the new wellfield configuration.

Delineation drilling (expected to complete in 4Q FY26) remains the key

near-term catalyst and a critical input to the feasibility study anticipated in

1Q FY27, in our view. We note that physical testing data will not be available

in time to inform that study, introducing material risk to both its reliability

and implementation timeline.

Earnings Revisions. We lift FY26–28 NPAT estimates by 11%/44%/39%,

driven entirely by our stronger uranium price assumptions. This underpins