Boss Energy A narrow path to redemption? Assume coverage at Underweight

Research evidence excerpt

Boss Energy A narrow path to redemption? Assume coverage at Underweight

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 June 2026

Boss Energy Underweight

BOE.AX, BOE AU

A narrow path to redemption? Assume coverage at Price (11 Jun 26):A$1.12

Underweight ▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$0.90 Prior (Dec-26):A$1.20

We assume coverage of Boss Energy at UW, with a Jun-27 A$0.90/share price

target. Boss’s equity has underperformed YTD (BOE -23% vs PDN/NXG -4% Australia

and ASX200 -1%) reflecting continued LOM uncertainty and FY26 production Australia Metals & Mining

downgrades (-11% at the mid-point). We see a narrow path to redemption with the AC Branko Skocic

technical / resource update (end Jun-26) and New Feasibility Study (end Sep-26) (61-3) 9633-4069

key to demonstrating medium-term Honeymoon economics. We remain cautious. branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

We view the outcome of the wider wellfield spacing trial as binary and model J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

marginal economics until end FY35. We explore a range of scenarios in Figure 2, Lyndon Fagan

noting valuation support towards A$0.75/sh (33% downside) in a bear case (61-2) 9003-8648

outcome with a bull-case scenario potentially supporting a re-rate towards A$1.55/ lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

sh (38% upside). Our base case (A$0.90/sh, -20%) reflects a more conservative J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

outlook and an expectation that marginal investors will prefer PDN. Jonathon Sharp

(61 2) 9003-8312

• What are we expecting to learn? Boss will provide an updated JORC jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Resource and technical update by the end of June. The update will focus on

technical fluid simulation trials (theoretical modeling) with real-world Devwrat Vegad

(91-22) 6157-3608