Japan's IP index (May 2026): up 0.5% MoM

Research evidence excerpt

Japan's IP index (May 2026): up 0.5% MoM

30 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Comment

Chemicals, petroleum products bottom out; production likely to continue rising

Japan’s industrial production index rose 0.5% MoM in May 2026 (up 0.5% inChief Economist:

April), rising for the second straight month but coming in below the BloombergShunsuke Kobayashi

consensus estimate (0.6% growth; see Figure 1). The rise in the index in May+81 3 6202 8222

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com was due to continued growth in production of transport equipment (excluding

motor vehicles) and a bottom for inorganic & organic chemicals and petroleum

Economist: & coal products, which had previously been on a downtrend.

Soichiro Hirose

+81 3 6202 8293 We believe the uptick in production in the inorganic & organic chemicals and

soichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com petroleum & coal products sectors stems from progress in securing alternative

Economist: sources for raw materials (e.g., crude oil and naphtha), which were the subject

Iichi Ogimi of supply concerns due to Strait of Hormuz closure (for details, see our report

+81 3 6202 8599 Japan's trade stats (May 2026)).

iichi.ogimi@mizuho-sc.com

The survey of manufacturing sector production forecasts points to production

continuing to rise in June and remaining flat at a high level in July, suggesting

solid trends will continue. Production is set to continue recovering in the

chemicals and petroleum products sectors after hitting a bottom in May.

Production in the production machinery and general-purpose & business

oriented machinery sectors is expected to increase in June, mainly for

semiconductor and flat panel display production equipment in the former