Barclays Metals & Mining: Mined Matters – A big week for aluminium supply announcements

Research evidence excerpt

Barclays Metals & Mining: Mined Matters – A big week for aluminium supply announcements

Barclays | Barclays Metals & Mining

Top news flow

China/Global

• China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) estimates national NEV wholesales at 1.51mn units

in June, +22% YoY and 12% MoM, indicating a clear recovery in the sector. The double-digit

growth suggests strengthening momentum in new energy vehicle demand and provides

support to overall passenger vehicle market expansion. (Source: CPCA, July 2)

• China has intensified its crackdown on aluminium overproduction, ordering the shutdown of

200kt of non-compliant capacity in Guangxi on June 24. The move reinforces a strict 45mt

capacity cap, with total installed capacity at 45.18mt and operating levels at 44.30–44.60mt,

implying a 98% utilization rate. Authorities are using power consumption benchmarks of

13,500–13,700 kWh/t to monitor output, alongside expanded inspections across seven

regions including Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. Penalties range from 30% production cuts to

fines of up to 10% of annual profit, with severe violations leading to permanent capacity

closures. The campaign signals tighter enforcement as Beijing seeks to prevent hidden

overproduction and maintain supply discipline. (Source: Tianxia Aluminum News, June 29)

• China plans to boost resource production in its circular economy by 16% by 2030 from 2025

levels, according to the National Development and Reform Commission. Targets include

annual utilization of 4.5bt of bulk solid waste, 510mt of recycled resources, and an industry

output value of 8trn yuan. The strategy also aims to establish a high-quality circular economy

system by 2035, with resource efficiency reaching advanced international levels. The plan