Yara-Cancels ammonia project with Air Products – near-term relief-06/30/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Yara-Cancels ammonia project with Air Products – near-term relief-06/30/2026

Yara

NEWSFLASH | 30 JUN 2026

Cancels ammonia project with Air Products – near-term relief

YAR has just announced that it will not move forward with the blue ammonia project in the US with Air Products (capex

previously estimated at USD ~2bn over 2027–2030). This follows a prolonged investigation into the economics of the project,

where we understand rising construction costs to be one of the key hurdles. While the project itself has failed to meet YAR's

return requirements, management is clearly stating that growth capex will still be directed towards blue ammonia projects

in the US, with multiple other projects currently under evaluation (CBAM framework still in play). While this will have no

impact on our 2027–28 estimates, it will likely provide minor relief to those concerned about the project pressuring the 50%

payout policy from 2028–2030.

Comments

• While the 2.8mt ammonia project with Air Products has been cancelled, the marketing and distribution agreement for renewable ammonia

from the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia is still in the works (sole offtaker of up to 1.2mt). This should thus cover part of

the ~2mt of ammonia import demand that Yara's European operations currently hold

• With the CBAM framework still very much in play, we would still expect YAR to continue pursuing its US blue ammonia ambitions to secure

its long-term profitability, though this will likely push such capex further out in time and could thus arguably be seen as a minor positive

Marcus Gavelli

+47 24 02 81 12, marcus.gavelli@paretosec.com

Fabian Jørgensen

+47 22 87 88 43, fabian.jorgensen@paretosec.com

For disclosures on relevant definitions, methods, risks, potential conflicts of interests etc.